In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has. The evolution of strategic foresight 10 strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations 173 part iii process 185 11 how could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision making. Using strategic foresight to plan for security evolution. Note this post is part of a series on using strategic foresight to influence longerrange innovation investments. Like disneys, jobss theory incorporated all three strategic sights. Yet many of the ideas of strategic foresight are quite different from the way in which most governments operate today. Today many companies put much effort into strategic foresight. These general trends seem easily predictable today by urban foresight leaders willing to look globally at megacity evolution and development. Drawing on the wisdom of the past, the evolution of strategic foresight by tuomo kuosa guides the reader through strategic thought to the present and guides to the future. Strategic foresight and porters five forces towards a synthesis daniel roy research paper undergraduate business economics business management, corporate governance publish your bachelors or masters thesis, dissertation, term paper or essay. Strategic foresight, leadership, and the future of rural. A consideration of possible futures alternative futures and of probable futures forecasts, predictions is important to developing a preferred future plan, even the simple mental plans made prior to taking an action. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic. Using strategic foresight to plan for security evolution nspw 18, august 2831, 2018.
It was inspired by foresight about the evolution of customer tastes. Pdf the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy. You may not see my ears and drum today, but judicial foresight is still very much on my mind and in my heart. Every system and its parts are indirectly connected to every other system.
The study examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial servicescharles merrills financial supermarket business modelthrough three wellknown and largely juxtaposed conceptual models of strategic foresight. The evolution of business strategy over the past 50 years has been significantly influenced by two general approaches. An even more sophisticated step in this arena will be for strategic foresight projects to start acknowledging the fundamental transformations in the global economic, political, and social systems being wrought by the ongoing evolution. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged in strategy and future studies, longrange, public policy. Strategic foresight analysis 20 report 3 introduction strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways. Evolution of foresight in the global historical context. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain. Strategic foresight efforts at both the broad contextual and sectorspecific levels can interlink and reinforce each other as part of an ongoing system of integrating futures thinking into policymaking. Structureconductperformance and the resourcebased approach. Know the difference between a fact and an assumption 3.
The traditional mechanistic approach to strategic thinking influenced the rationales and consequently the early experiences of technology forecasting in europe. This is a practical field guide to foresight and foresight tools for leaders in business, the public sector and ngos, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change. Foresight as a strategic longterm planning tool for. Toward a model of strategic foresight abstract this study examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial servicescharles merrills financial supermarket business modelthrough three wellknown and largely juxtaposed conceptual models of strategic foresight. Linking strategic thinking more broadly to futurology, however, it is quite new. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the military and politics. Introduction foresight concepts strategic concepts evolutionary concepts inferring in theory inferring in foresight. Adam gordon, an instructor on aalto university executive educations strategic foresight program, the problem with forecasting lies not so much in the quality of the data analytics. Successful evolution in an era of continuous change will require a blend of intentional engagement with stakeholders, strategic foresight, and futurefocused leadership. Aug 10, 2014 a brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides for sseo 1.
The evolution of business strategy the strategic thinking. In 1995, it was shifted to the prime ministers offices public service division psd. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged in strategy and future studies, longrange, public policy and urban planners, analysts. Strategy formulation is strictly intertwined with the analysis of the likely evolution of the business environment, in order to detect promptly the opportunities and the threats brought about by emerging trends and to deal with them properly strategic foresight. Evolution in the rationales of foresight in europe.
Successful evolution in an era of continuous change will require a blend of intentional engagement with stakeholders, strategic foresight, and future focused leadership. Strategic foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures, so that you can plan for and take advantage of them. Strategic foresight in government from a napa panel for the 2016 presidential transition in 2016, a panel of distinguished academy fellows prepared a report for the future administration on strategic foresight. Nov 18, 2019 strategic foresight supplies these frameworks. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight. At its best, the process allows policymakers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students. Strategic foresight is a discipline that provides a structured way to investigate, not predict, the future. Understand the era we are in certain or uncertain, slow changes or fast ones 2. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public. Strategic foresight group is immensely grateful to the governments of sweden and switzerland for their sponsorship of this initiative, national institutions in turkey and jordan for their additional support. In strategic foresight, we have to pay attention to all three futures.
The full innovation leaders guide to strategic foresight is available for download strategic foresight. The flexibility in the diversity of tools available to support the strategic foresight process means that the details are crucial to success. This entails discovering why certain firms are successful while others are not. This document contains preliminary research conducted on behalf of the strategic foresight initiative sfi on the evolving terrorist threat driver. The foresight guide a big picture guide to the 21st century. Examples of completed community development projects 2. Practicing strategic foresight in government the web site cannot. Views of policy makers and high government officials 187. Strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. Each of them represents a particular mechanism of change. The intention is to characterize several main events, inventions and circumstances that have conducted the evolution of this pervasive method together with broader participation and a changing focus of foresight over time. A brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides for.
In this sense, strategic foresight is fundamentally different from the notion of five or 10 year plans. Pdf embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo. The intention is to characterize several main events, inventions and circumstances that have conducted the evolution of this pervasive method together with broader participation and a changing focus of foresight. The evolution of strategic foresight ebook por tuomo kuosa. Strategic learning, foresight and hyperopia david mackay. Strategic foresight primer committee of the regions european. On the other hand, the more recent dynamic nonlinear approaches to strategic thinking and a gradual regionalization of the innovation policy have favoured the replacement of forecasting with foresight and, more recently, with regional. The evolution of strategy is there a western way of war which pursues battles of annihilation and singleminded military victory.
Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for. Analogous to longsightedness, hyperopia describes the condition of being able to grasp with acuity matters which are far removed from current experience temporally, spatially or cognitively while. Cases of finland, singapore and european union 1 and the evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy making 2, are strongly. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy. Strategic foresight in government national academy of. Jul 20, 2010 the main purpose of this paper is to dynamically outline the evolution of foresight in different generations of globalization and different countries. The evolution of strategic influence it is the significant actions taken by government in and of themselves, the appropriate and most desirable arrangements of such actions, and the manner and emphasis of the publication of such actions to the world, that advance the struggle for mens minds and create a desirable climate of world opinion. Introduction to strategic foresight future motions.
You may disagree with these bets, but hopefully, using a common language of evolution and development we can better clarify the ways we disagree, and what data we would need to help us come closer in our. The evolution of strategic foresight ebook by tuomo kuosa. Strategic foresight involves broadening the menu of policy options, and taking into account future scenarios that might affect todays decisions. This research is intended to serve as a discussion point. Glenn, ceo, the millennium project according to my professional experience dr tuomo kuosa is one of leading experts in the foresight. Featured in bibliozone this month is a collection of publications related to foresight methodologies and futures. Inferring in foresight the evolution of strategic foresight taylor. The origins of modern strategic thought can be traced back to the classical strategists. In our reflections, as well as in our work around the world, we have realised that challenges to human survival. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions. The evolution of the singaporean strategic foresight began in 1991 from the establishment of risk detection and scenario planning office in the ministry of defence in 1991.
Strategic foresight and porters five forces publish your. Wintle 1school 2 of biological sciences, monash university, clayton, victoria 3800, australia school 3. What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans. The ostensible purpose of glucks article was to throw light on the thenpopular but illdefined term strategic management, using data from a recent mckinsey study of formal strategic planning in corporations. Strategic foresight analysis sfa north africa and the. The main purpose of this paper is to dynamically outline the evolution of foresight in different generations of globalization and different countries. Skip the strategic foresight process and go straight to writing a strategic plan characteristics of the person doing a strategic foresight 1. In 2003, it acquired new objectives and a new name. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. Strategic foresight although many definitions and interpretations of strategic foresight exist, we can define strategic foresight as, essentially, the methods by which organizations come to identify and predict possible events that may effect the environment in which they operate so that they can both mitigate risks and exploit opportunities. Linking strategic thinking more broadly to futurology. This magisterial new account answers these questions by tracing the history of western thinking about strategy the employ.
Pdf the evolution of strategic foresight navigating. The idea for this strategic foresight primer was born out of necessity. First, strategic foresight, a discipline i describe in more detail, provides the vitally needed mindsets and frameworks required to plan in uncertainty. To be the best big picture guide to 21st century foresight. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. Current community development projects in progress d. This online book is the most comprehensive intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available on the web. Both perspectives were developed from leading academic centers and have managed to stand the test of time, albeit with occasional cosmetic changes. The first published product of glucks strategy initiative was a 1978 staff paper, the evolution of strategic management. The evolution of strategic foresight tuomo kuosa bok. Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways.
The concept of strategic foresightthat is, the ability of a strategist to identify a superior course of. Future studies, foresight and scenarios as basis for better. An examination of their works shows that the basic questions with which they have grappled over the. Glenn, ceo, the millennium project according to my professional experience dr tuomo kuosa is one of leading experts in the foresight field. Strategic management has been regarded as a fundamental issue that explains the success or failure of firms rumelt et al.
Maximizing the power of strategic foresight washington. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought. More research is needed to fully understand not only the challenges of rural healthcare but also the emerging opportunities. In one sense, it is merely an extension of good policymaking. The concept of a system implies that parts or subsystems are part of a larger system. Oecd technology foresight forums have been organised since 2005 to help identify opportunities and challenges for the internet economy posed by technical developments. To effectively spot new trends, strategic foresight teams need to have a much wider range of information sources than.
Strategic foresight provides a diverse toolkit to help decisionmakers structure attempts to think creatively about the future and make decisions that create a more desirable future. America and the world in 2040, free pdfs shapiro and morson 2015 the failure of risk. Pdf the evolution of strategy download full pdf book download. What eventually became judicial foresight actually was born in the worlds first and so far still best exercise of citizenbased anticipatory democracy, called hawaii 2000, a set. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic options available to an organisation. Is warfare on a path to ever greater destructive force. This research is intended to serve as a discussion point for further discussions, and does not represent a forecast by the federal emergency management agency fema. Forum topics have included cloud computing 2009, icts and green growth 2010 big data 2012 and the internet. An examination of their works shows that the basic questions with which they have grappled over the past two centuries have been remarkably constant. Navigating public policy making tuomo kuosa strategic foresight is traditionally associated with the military and politics. To purchase this ebook for personal use, or in paperback or hardback format. The book presents selected essays from our writings on the website of strategic foresight group. Figure 5 strong node in singaporean public strategic foresight system.
Strategic foresight, leadership, and the future of rural hea. While strategic planning is a vital competency for todays leaders as they craft a vision for the future, an equally important leadership competency is strategic foresight to anticipate how this future might unfold. Foresight for development turns the spotlight on foresight methodologies and future thinking. Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change riccardo vecchiato, claudio roveda pages 15271539. Introduction to strategic foresight systems thinking strategic foresight looks at change from a systems perspective. Parti knowledge 1 1 introduction 3 2 foresight concepts 5 3 strategic concepts 45 4 evolutionary concepts 65 5 inferring in theory 87 6 inferring in foresight 99 part ii structure 5 7 principles of strategic foresight in public policy making 7 8 strategic foresight in the european unions older member states public policy making 9 9 strategic. The evolution of strategic foresight in public policy making, tuomo kuosa 2012 the fabulous future. The full innovation leaders guide to strategic foresight is available for download. While subtle, there is a distinction between vision and foresight.